Should you book a vacation flight now considering the rising cost of jet fuel?

Travelers planning summer vacations face a tough decision as global oil supply disruptions, caused by conflicts in the Middle East, have pushed up jet fuel prices leading to higher airfares being passed on to passengers.

According to the latest analysis of the International Transport Organization, the price of world jet fuel stood at $195.19 per barrel last week, down 0.9% from the previous week, but still more than double from the end of March.

In the U.S., the Argus US Jet Fuel Index hit more than $4.60 a gallon on Monday, up sharply from $2.50 before the war.

While the war with Iran may stop or at least be reduced in the short term, the effects that disrupt jet fuel prices and, as a result, airline fares may be delayed.

Fuel represents 25-35% of airline operating costs and rising prices have prompted swift action across the sector.

United Airlines has announced a 5% reduction in its scheduled flights, Scandinavian carrier SAS is canceling at least 1000 flights next month, Air New Zealand is reducing capacity by 5% and has canceled around 1100 services until the beginning of May.

Cathay Pacific has increased prices on all routes, Thai Airways has indicated expected fare increases of between 10% and 15%, while AirAsia and Qantas have also introduced temporary fares, to name a few examples.

Carriers with hedging programs, such as Lufthansa and Ryanair, have been able to reduce some exposure by locking in earlier prices.

Airlines are facing capacity cuts and cost overruns

The adjustments made by the airlines reflect a broader effort to manage the network amid supply shortages and rerouting requirements.

Roads bypassing the Middle East have seen increased traffic, contributing to higher operating costs and special toll changes.

While some long-term workers have increased costs significantly, the temporary and domestic market is also under pressure, with spring and summer rates already reflecting the new reality.

Anita Mendiratta, a special adviser to the UN Secretary-General on Tourism and an aviation expert, told Euronews that the first warnings and fears are starting to flow over jet fuel in the UK as the summer travel season approaches.

“While the UK government’s position is that there are no immediate concerns about fuel supply and that the UK is benefiting from a diverse range of energy supplies, the issue facing airlines is not the availability of crude oil but refined jet fuel and airport refueling facilities,” said Mendiratta.

On Tuesday, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, spoke about the rise in the price of jet fuel and named the UK in particular, suggesting that they should “buy from the US, we have a lot,” and contribute directly to the preservation of the Strait of Hormuz.

Mendiratta also explained to Euronews how airlines make decisions based on rising costs. These decisions will have a major impact on the rest areas available to passengers as the war with Iran continues.

“Jet fuel cannot be stored in large quantities at the airport, and the system depends on continuous delivery through refineries and pipelines. That means that even short interruptions can quickly cause operational problems, especially at large airports,” he explained.

“If the availability of fuel becomes an obstacle, the airlines do not close the entire network. Instead, they prioritize the routes where each plane produces more money and supports the wider network,” the expert added.

“In fact, that means that long-haul routes, regional flights and business trips are protected, while less leisure routes and short-haul flights can reduce the frequency,” Mendiratta concluded.

Travel agencies and tourists are talking about growing concerns

Travelers are facing higher ticket prices and fewer flight options at a time when many are looking forward to cheap summer vacations after the post-pandemic recovery.

According to industry reports, the combination of rising tariffs and reduced schedules is causing uncertainty, with some tourists delaying bookings in anticipation of possible diplomatic developments that could destabilize oil markets.

Travel agents report that customers are turning to flexible options or nearby destinations to reduce exposure to high volatility.

A Booking.com spokesperson told Euronews that “regardless of what happens in the wider environment, airlines adjust their flight prices based on demand and availability, with prices increasing as the travel date approaches, especially in the last three weeks before the departure date.”

“As people make their summer travel plans, we recommend setting up a price alert to keep track of any changes,” the spokesperson added.

In a related development, the European Commission is encouraging Europeans to travel less to help avoid the energy costs associated with the Iran war.

In a letter to national energy ministers seen by Euronews, EU energy chief Dan Jørgensen called for “voluntary measures to maintain demand. […] with special attention to the transportation industry,” which could include asking citizens to drive or fly less to conserve fuel for essential uses.

Mendiratta noted that summer demand remains strong but consumer behavior is changing.

“Travel data so far suggests that people are still willing to travel this summer, but they are reacting differently,” he told Euronews.

“The search for flights is already underway, and there are still bookings to go forward, but travelers are booking earlier, staying longer and being more price conscious. […] the picture is not one of falling demand, but a demand that goes hand in hand with more sensitivity to price and risk aversion,” the expert concluded.

So, should you book those vacation flights now? In this jet fuel crisis, the only truth is uncertainty.

Prices could rise tomorrow or fall if the Iran war stalls, travelers must weigh the risks of locking in high current rates against the possibility of a sudden increase or decrease in energy. There is no direct answer.

For many, prioritizing with flexible or reversible options can provide protection and comfort, while others prefer to monitor developments closely and set price alerts.

Whatever the case, the smart approach is to stay informed, assess personal travel needs and prepare for changing conditions as summer approaches.